Peer-reviewed publications




Overland, J.E., T. Ballinger, J. Cohen, J.A. Francis, E. Hanna, R. Jaiser, B.-M. Kim, S.-J. Kim, J. Ukita, T. Vihma, M. Wang, and X. Zhang, 2021: How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events? Env. Res. Lett., press release



Francis, J.A. and B. Wu, 2020: Why has no new record-minimum Arctic sea-ice extent occurred since September 2012? Environ. Res. Lett.,, in press. press release

Alkama, R., E. Koffi, S. Vavrus, T. Diehl, J. Francis, J. Stroeve, G. Forzieri, T. Vihma, and A. Cescatti, 2020: Wind amplifies the polar sea ice retreat. Environ. Res. Lett., accepted.

Francis, J.A., N. Skific, and S.J. Vavrus, 2020: Increased persistence of large-scale circulation regimes over Asia in the era of amplified Arctic warming, past and future. Nature Scientific Reports, 10:14953, release

Cohen, J., X. Zhang, J. Francis, T. Jung, R. Kwok, J. Overland, T. J. Ballinger, U. S. Bhatt, H. W. Chen, D. Coumou, S. Feldstein, H. Gu, D. Handorf, G. Henderson, M. Ionita, M. Kretschmer, F. Laliberte, S. Lee, H. W. Linderholm, W. Maslowski, Y. Peings, K. Pfeiffer, I. Rigor, T. Semmler, J. Stroeve, P. C. Taylor, S. Vavrus, T. Vihma, S. Wang, M. Wendisch, Y. Wu, J. Yoon, 2020: Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather. Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41558-019-0662-y.​


Vihma, T., R. Graversen, L. Chen, D. Handorf, N. Skific, J. Francis, N. Tyrrell, R. Hall, E. Hanna, P. Uotila, K. Dethloff, A. Karpechko, H. Bjornsson, and J. Overland, 2019: Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming. Int J. of Climatol. 2019;1–21. AL.21. pdf

Wang, F., S.J. Vavrus, J.A. Francis, and J.E. Martin, 2019: The role of horizontal thermal advection in regulating wintertime mean and extreme temperatures over interior North America during the past and future. Climate Dynamics,

Wu, B. and Francis, J.A, 2019: Summer Arctic cold anomaly dynamically linked to East Asian heat waves. J. of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0370.1.


Francis, J.A., Clarity and clouds: Progress in understanding Arctic influences on mid-latitude weather. A "Frostbites" essay in the 2018 Arctic Report Card, NOAA Arctic Program. pdf

Francis, J.A., N. Skific, and S.J. Vavrus, North American weather regimes are becoming more persistent: Is Arctic amplification a factor? Geophysical Research Letters, 45, doi:10.1029/2018GL080252. pdf

Rutgers press release

Vorosmarty, C., Rawlins, M., Hinzman, L., Francis, J., Serreze, M., Liljedahl, A., McDonald, K., Piasecki, M. & Rich, R. (2018). Opportunities and Challenges in Arctic System Synthesis: A Consensus Report from the Arctic Research Community. New York, NY. City University of New York.

Kapsch, M.-L., N. Skific, R.G. Graversen, M. Tjernstrom, and J.A. Francis, 2018: Summers with low Arctic sea ice linked to persistence of spring atmospheric circulation patterns. Climate Dynamics, 52, 2497–2512.

Chen, L., J.A. Francis, and E. Hanna, 2018: The "Warm-Arctic/Cold-Continents" pattern during 1901-2010: a reanalysis-based study. International J. of Climatology, doi:10.1002/joc.5725, pdf.

Cohen, J., K. Pfeiffer, and J.A. Francis, 2018: Warm Arctic episodes linked with increased frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States. Nature Communications, doi:10.1038/s41467-018-02992-9. pdf

***Selected as one of top 50 articles in Nature Communications during 2018! ***


Francis, J.A., 2017: Why are Arctic linkages to extreme weather still up in the air? Bull. Amer. Meteoro. Soc., 98, 2551–2557. pdf.

Wu, B., K. Yang, and J.A. Francis, 2017: A cold event in Asia during January-February 2012 and its possible association with Arctic sea-ice loss. J. of Climate, pdf

Cohen, J., J.A. Francis, and K. Pfeiffer, Winter 2015/16, 2017: A turning point in ENSO-based seasonal forecasts. Oceanography, 30(1), oceanog.2017.115. pdf.

Vavrus, S.J., F. Wang, J. Martin, J. Francis, Y. Peings, and J. Cattiaux, 2017: Changes in North American atmospheric circulation and extreme weather: Influence of Arctic amplification and northern hemisphere snow cover. J. Climate, 4317-4333, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0762.1. pdf

Francis, J.A, S.J. Vavrus, and J. Cohen, 2017: Amplified Arctic warming and mid-latitude weather: New perspectives on emerging connections. WIREs Climate Change, doi: 10.1002/wdd.474. pdf

Awarded top-20 most downloaded papers by WIREs


Screen, J.A. and J.A. Francis, Contribution of sea-ice loss to Arctic amplification is regulated by Pacific Ocean decadal variability, 2016: Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE3011. pdf

Liu, J., Z. Chen, J.A. Francis, T. Mote, and Y. Hu, 2016: Has Arctic sea ice loss contributed to increased surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet? Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0391.1. pdf

Overland, J.E., K. Dethloff, J.A. Francis, R.J. Hall, E. Hanna, S.-J. Kim, J.A. Screen, T.G. Shepherd, and T. Vihma, 2016: Nonlinear response of midlatitude weather to the changing Arctic. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE3121. pdf

Wu, B., K. Yang, and J.A. Francis, 2016: Summer Arctic dipole wind pattern affects the winter Siberian High, Internat. Journal of Climatology, doi:10.1002/joc.4623. pdf



Francis, J.A. and S.J. Vavrus, 2015: Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming. Environ. Res. Lett., 10, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014005. pdf


Francis, J.A. and N. Skific, 2015: Evidence Linking Rapid Arctic Warming to Mid-latitude Weather Patterns. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 373, doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0170. pdf


Overland, J.E., J.A. Francis, R. Hall, E. Hanna, S.-J. Kim, and T. Vihma, 2015: The melting Arctic and midlatitude weather patterns: Are they connected? J. Clim., doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00822.1. pdf


Francis, J. A., and S. J. Vavrus, 2015: Consequences of a rapidly warming Arctic.  In: Climate Change and Public Health, J. A. Patz and B. Levy [Eds.]. ISBN: 9780190202453, Oxford University Press, New York.

Francis, J.A., 2015: The Arctic matters: extreme weather responds to diminished Arctic sea ice. Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 091002. pdf




Tang, Q., X. Zhang, and J.A. Francis, 2014: Extreme summer weather in northern mid-latitudes linked to a vanishing cryosphere. Nature Climate Change, 4, doi:10.1038/nclimate2065.


Francis, J.A. and J.E. Overland, 2014: Implications of rapid Arctic change for weather patterns in northern mid-latitudes. U.S. CLIVAR Variations, 12, 10-13.


Francis, J.A., 2014: Rapid Arctic warming and wacky weather: Are they linked: Feature article in Association for Women in Science Magazine, Winter 2014 issue.





Francis, J.A., 2013: Rapid Arctic warming and wacky weather: Are they linked? Amer. Assoc. for Women in Science Magazine, Vol. 44, Winter 2013. 


Skific, N., and J. A. Francis, 2013: Drivers of projected change in arctic moist static energy transport. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50292.


Tang, Q., X. Zhang, X. Yang, and J. A. Francis, 2013: Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss.Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 014036.


Greene, C.H., J.A. Francis, and B.C. Monger, 2013: Superstorm Sandy: A series of unfortunate events? Oceanography26(1):8–9, 


Francis, J.A., 2013: The where and when of wetter and drier: disappearing Arctic sea ice plays a role. Environ. Res. Lett., 8, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/041002.




Francis, J. A. and S. J. Vavrus, 2012: Evidence Linking Arctic Amplification to Extreme Weather in Mid-Latitudes, Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 39, L06801, doi:10.1029/2012GL051000.


Overland, J.E., J.A. Francis, E. Hanna, and M. Wang, 2012: The recent shift in early summer Arctic atmospheric circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39,L19804,doi:10.1029/2012GL053268.


Skific, N. and J.A. Francis, 2012: "Self-Organizing Maps: A Powerful Tool for the Atmospheric Sciences" in Applications of Self-Organizing Maps, ISBN 978-953-51-0862-7, edited by M. Johnsson, doi:10.5772/54299.




Chen, Y., J.R. Miller, J.A. Francis, and G. L. Russell, 2011: Projected regime shifts in Arctic feedbacks, Env. Res. Lett., 6, 044007. 




Rawlins, M.A., M. Steele, M.M. Holland, J. C. Adam, J. E. Cherry, J. A. Francis, P.Y. Groisman, L.D. Hinzman, T.G. Huntington, D. L. Kane, J. S. Kimball, R. Kwok, R. B. Lammers, C. M. Lee, D. P. Lettenmaier, K. C. McDonald, E. Podest, J. W. Pundsack, B. Rudels, M. C. Serreze, A. Shiklomanov, Skagseth, T. J. Troy, C. J. Vorosmarty, M. Wensnahan, E. F. Wood, R. Woodgate, D. Yang, K. Zhang, and T. Zhang, 2010: Analysis of the Arctic System for Freshwater Cycle Intensification: Observations and Expectations. J. Climate,23,5715-5737,doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3421.1.




Francis, J. A., D. M. White, J. J. Cassano, W. J. Gutowski, L. D. Hinzman, M. M. Holland, M. A. Steele, and C. J. Vorosmarty, 2009: An Arctic Hydrologic System in Transition: Feedbacks and Impacts on Terrestrial, Marine, and Human Life. J. Geophys. Res., 114, G04019, doi:10.1029/2008JG000902. 


Francis, J.A., W. Chan, D.J. Leathers, J.R. Miller, and D.E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea ice extent. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.


Skific, N., J.A. Francis, and J.J. Cassano, 2009: Attribution of Seasonal and Regional Changes in Arctic Moisture Convergence. J. Climate, 22, 5115–5134, DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2829.1. 


Skific, N., J.A. Francis, and J.J. Cassano, 2009: Attribution of Projected Changes in Atmospheric Moisture Transport in the Arctic: A Self-Organizing Map Perspective. J. Climate, 22, 4135–4153, DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2645.1. 




Overland, J.,  J. Turner, J. Francis, N. Gillett, G. Marshall, and M. Tjernstrom, 2008:  The Arctic and Antarctic: Two faces of climate change. Eos Trans., 89, 177-184.  


Vavrus, S.J., D. Waliser, A. Schweiger, and J. Francis, 2008: Simulations of 20th and 21st century Arctic cloud amount in the global climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4, Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0475-6.


Schweiger, A.J., R.W. Lindsay, S. Vavrus, and J.A. Francis,2008: Relationships between Arctic sea ice and clouds during autumn.Jounal of Climate, 21, 4799-4810. 


Menon, S., N. Unger, D. Koch, J. Francis, T. Garrett, I. Sednev, D. Shindell, and D. Streets, 2008: Aerosol climate effects and air quality impacts from 1980 to 2030. Environmental Research Letters, 3, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/3/2/024004.




Francis, J.A. and E. Hunter, 2007: Drivers of declining sea ice in the Arctic Winter, Geophysical Research Letters,34, L17503, doi:10.1029/2007GL030995. 


Francis, J.A. and E. Hunter, 2007: Changes in the fabric of the Arctic’s greenhouse blanket, Environ. Res. Lett., 2, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/4/045011. 


Miller, J., Y. Chen, G. L. Russell, and J. A. Francis, 2007: Future regime shift in feedbacks during Arctic winter,Geophysical Research Letters,34, L23707, doi:10.1029/2007GL031826. 


White et al., 2007:The arctic freshwater system: Changes and impacts, J. Geophys. Res., 112, G04S54, doi:10.1029/2006JG000353. 


Liu, Y., J. R. Key, J. A. Francis and X. Wang, 2007: Possible causes of decreasing cloud cover in the Arctic winter, 1982-2000,Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L14705,doi:10.1029/2007GL030042.




Francis, J.A. and E. Hunter, 2006: New insight into the disappearing Arctic sea ice, Eos Tranactions of the AGU, 87, 509-524. 


Kato, S., N.G. Loeb, P. Minnis, J.A. Francis, and T.P. Charlock, 2006: Seasonal and interannual variations of top-of-atmosphere irradiance and cloud cover over polar regions derived from the CERES data set. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L19804, doi:10.1029/2006GL026685.  


Liu, Y. J.R. Key, A. Schweiger, and J.A. Francis, 2006: Characteristics of Satellite-Derived Clear-Sky Atmospheric Temperature Inversion Strength in the Arctic, 1980–96. J. Clim., 19, 4902-4913. 


Serreze, M.C. and J. Francis, 2006: The Arctic on the Fast Track of Change, Weather, 61, 65-69. 


Serreze, M.C. and J.A. Francis, 2006: The Arctic amplification debate. Climatic Change, doi: 10.1007/s10584-005-9017-y. 




Francis, J.A., E. Hunter, and C.-Z. Zou, 2005: Arctic tropospheric winds derived from TOVS satellite retrievals. J. Clim., 18, 2270-2285.  


Overpeck, J.T., M. Sturm, J.A. Francis, D.K. Perovich, M.C Serreze, and 16 others, 2005: Arctic system on trajectory to new, seasonally ice-free state. Eos Trans., 86.


Francis, J.A., E. Hunter, J. Key, and X. Wang, 2005: Clues to variability in Arctic minimum sea ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L21501, doi:10.1029/2005GL024376. 


Chen, Y., F. Aires, J.A. Francis, J.R. Miller, 2005: Observed relationships between Arctic longwave cloud forcing and cloud parameters using a neural network. J. Clim., 19, 4087-4104. 




Chen, Y., J. R. Miller, J.A. Francis, G.G. Russell, and F. Aires, 2003: Observed and modeled relationships among Arctic climate variables. J. Geophys. Res., 108(D24), 4799, doi:10.1029/2003JD003824.




Francis, J.A., 2002: Validation of reanalysis upper-level winds in the Arctic with independent rawinsonde data, Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 10.1029/2001GL014578.


Groves, D.G. and J.A. Francis, 2002: The moisture budget of the Arctic atmosphere from TOVS satellite data, J. Geophys. Res., D19, 4391, doi:10.1029/2001JD001191.


Groves, D.G. and J.A. Francis, 2002: Variability of the Arctic Atmospheric Moisture Budget from TOVS Satellite Data, J. Geophys. Res., D24, 4785, doi:10.1029/2002JD002285.


Chen, Y., J.A. Francis, and J. R. Miller, 2002: Surface temperature of the Arctic: comparison of TOVS satellite retrievals with surface observations, J. Clim., 15, 3698-3708.


Chiacchio, M. and J.A. Francis, 2002: Evaluation of methods ot estimate the surface downwelling longwave flux during Arctic winter, J. Applied Meteor., 41, 306-318.


Schweiger, A.J., R.W. Lindsay, J.A. Francis, J. Key, J. Intrieri, and M. Shupe, 2002: Validation of TOVS Path-P data during SHEBA. J. Geophys. Res., 107(C10), 8041, 10.1029/2000JC000453.




Francis, J.A. and A.J. Schweiger, 2000: A new window opens on the Arctic, Eos Trans., AGU, 81, 77-78.




Scott, N.A., A. Chedin, R. Armante, J. Francis, C. Stubenrauch, J.-P. Chaboureau, F. Chevallier, C. Claud, and F. Cheruy, 1999: Characteristics of the TOVS Pathfinder Path-B dataset. Bulletin of the Am. Meteor. Soc., 80, 2679-2701.


Schweiger, A.J., R.W. Lindsay, J.R. Key, and J.A. Francis, 1999: Arctic clouds in multiyear satellite data sets. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 1845-1848.


Francis, J.A., 1997: A Method to Derive Downwelling Longwave Fluxes at the Arctic Surface from TOVS Data, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 1795-1806.

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